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NOAA Seminar Series: Urban Study of Excessive Rainfall Rates
Title: Urban Study of Excessive Rainfall Rates
Presenter(s): Melissa Crouch
Date: 10 October 2024 11:05 am – 11:35 am ET
Remote Access: Google Meet joining info
Video call link: https://meet.google.com/yat-nxrf-emf
Or dial: (US) +1 321-405-2803 PIN: 268 246397
#More phone numbers: https://tel.meet/yat-nxrf-emf?pin=4547124589737
About Speaker: Melissa Crouch
Abstract: Warming atmospheric temperatures have the potential to increase the moisture content, leading to enough intensified precipitation and storms to induce flash flooding. Urban areas experience the worst of these events due to a lack of infiltration that affects drainage systems. This project is an analysis of these rainfall events. The objectives were to (1) use MRMS/FLASH data to help better anticipate urban flood events through good lead time, (2) use the data to refine flash flood guidance values, and (3) develop thresholds for improved issuance of severity of flood impacts. Particular focus was on the remnants of Ida on September 1st and 2nd, 2021, and the September 29th event of 2023. Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) data were matched with local storm reports (LSRs) to statistically summarize the patterns of precipitation and surface runoff estimates within New York City. Flash flood guidance (FFG) was used to interpret the results of the analysis, which concludes that, for all events, the quantitative precipitation estimate (QPE) does not exceed FFG thresholds. The surface runoff simulations illustrate the exceedance of thresholds, posing the risk of flash flooding to occur. The work also helps in serving the needs of both meteorologists and hydrologists to improve lead time and calibrate thresholds for improved issuance of severity of flood impacts. The results are from the NOAA EPP/MSI CSC NERTO graduate internship project that was conducted with NOAA mentor Dr. David Radell, Science Operations Officer at the National Weather Service at Upton, NY. The NERTO aligns with NOAA CSC CESSRST-II’s goal to understand and predict changes in Earth’s environment. This Urban Study of Excessive Rainfall Rates also deepened the intern’s understanding of how urban landscapes (like NYC) influence flash flooding behavior and the importance of how these models help the public in making informed decisions on how to prepare for these kinds of events.