DATE:  March 23, 2023

TIME: 1:00pm – 2:00pm (in-person in NYSDEC CO Conf-919 & webinar via remote connection).

TITLE: Estimating attributable deaths from short-term pollution effects: differential air pollution impact on cause-specific mortality from multiple pollutants

PRESENTER:  Ariel Spira-Cohen, PhD; Senior Environmental Epidemiologist, Bureau of Environmental Surveillance and Policy, NYC DOHMH

ABSTRACT: Health impact assessment (HIA) is a common policy tool that quantifies health burden from air pollution under different policy scenarios. Most HIAs consider health impacts using risk estimates from single-pollutant models, leaving uncertainty about varying impacts from multiple air pollutants. Pollution attributable fractions (AFs) and attributable counts (ACs) of mortality were estimated from single- and co-pollutant daily time-series models and a multipollutant Total Risk Index (TRI) considering citywide average concentrations of PM_2.5, NO₂ and warm season ozone in NYC (2005-2019). We examined effects on total non-external mortality as well as major mortality sub-causes. We found that PM_2.5 was more important for cardiovascular deaths, ozone for respiratory deaths, and NO₂ for total non-external and cancer deaths, with ~670 total non-external deaths on average attributed to NO₂ annually. Annual average ACs from the full year TRI model (PM_2.5 + NO₂) was similar (~680 deaths). Co-pollutant models showed that NO₂ ACs were more robust than PM_2.5 ACs, which diminished greatly. When summing ACs from co-pollutant models, the summed ACs approximated the largest AC from either pollutant modeled alone. We also examined annual pollution ACs over time and found a reduction in PM-attributable deaths (~57% for total non-external deaths and ~62% for CVD mortality) consistent with a~55% decline in annual PM_2.5 concentrations in NYC during the study period. While NO₂ ACs also declined consistent with a ~40% decline in NO₂ concentrations, they still contribute to more deaths per year than PM_2.5. Ozone concentrations have not declined and ozone ACs remained stable over time. Continuing to reduce local NO₂ emissions (i.e., from traffic and buildings), may be most impactful in reducing pollution-associated mortality in NYC. Persistent ozone levels from regional source emissions remains a challenge.

EVENT Details

Join from the meeting link :  https://meetny.webex.com/meetny/j.php?MTID=mc928628a59af153b80c230b7d68aabb9

Join by meeting number

Meeting number (access code): 161 145 9511

Meeting password: Welcome1

Tap to join from a mobile device (attendees only)
+1-518-549-0500,,1611459511## US (English Menu)
+1-518-549-0059,,1611459511## US (Menú en Español)

Join by phone
+1-518-549-0500 US (English Menu)
+1-518-549-0059 US (Menú en Español)
Global call-in numbers

Join from a video system or application
Dial 1611459511@meetny.webex.com
You can also dial 173.243.2.68 and enter your meeting number.

Seminar is organized by:

BAQAR: Bureau of Air Quality Analysis and Research of the NYS Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) Division of Air Resources (DAR)

NYSERDA: NYS Energy Research and Development Authority